the deal that shocked washington. >> this senate democratic majority will finally take on big pharma. this legislation will be the greatest proclimate legislation the congress has ever passed. >> and the rhetorical battle the white house can't win. >> we have a record job market. businesses are investing in america at record rates. that doesn't sound like a recession to me. >> we have to cut back a lot right now just to get back. >> are we in a recession or does it just feel like one? does the answer really matter politically? new signs the justice department's january 6 probe entered the oval office. >> i think the indicators are really pointing at severe legal peril for donald trump. >> is merrick garland zeroing in on the former president? tuesday's big primaries are a test of the influence over the

gop. will they fight off maga challengers? >> if the i don't know in office is to stay in office you should find another job. >> "inside politics," the biggest stories sourced by the best reporters now. >> welcome "inside politics supd." i i'm manu raju in for abby phillips. joe manchin is supporting the plan to fight the climate crisis and fight prescription drug costs. it was a deal 18 months in the working. >> the work of the government can be slow and sometimes infuriating. then the hard work of hours and days and months from people who refused to give up pays off. history is made. lives are changed. with this legislation, we are facing up to some of the biggest

problems and we are taking a giant step forward as a nation. >> but as democrats were celebrating new data shows the american economy shrank for a second straight quarter. >> two negative quarters of gdp growth is not the technical definition of a recession. >> you do not see the major contraction or layoffs that have been consistent in the country with a recession. >> you think about what a recession is. businesses shuttering. people unable to find jobs. that's not what we're seeing in this economy. >> the republican message, more concise. >> yes. we are in a recession. we have a shrinking economy and paychecks. >> we are in a recession. >> democrats have plunged america into a recession. >> the biden recession is officially here. >> let's discuss this and more

with sungmin kim, jonathan martin and mj lee. now technically, yeah, the white house is right. there is a group called the national bureau of economic research and determine if the country is in a recession. does it matter? look at the polls on how americans feel about a recession and the economy. a cnn poll how would you rate the economic conditions today? 82% say poor. 18% say good. the worst since 2011. >> not strong. >> do you think the economy is in a recession? yes, 64%. 35%. does it matter what the technical definition is? >> probably not. no matter how much white house officials try to explain to public that no they have to determine what a recession is i

don't think that matters when gas prices are still too high. when food is expensive. i don't think that matters to voters. they have to look at other ways to boost the spirits of the american public coming to the economy. i think that's a really -- having a difficult time doing that. i think that's why instead of trying to tell the public it's not as bad as it seems democrats i talk to say they will make this worse and we try to improve things. >> there are positive signs in the economy. gas prices are falling. the white house is boasting about this. they're down about 80% in the past 6 weeks. below $4 a gallon in 17 states. but the question is, mj, are the views -- this is still high, hi

tore cli high. are the views baked into the electorate? >> on the recession front the white house is on message just saying over and over again particularly in the days leading up to the quarter 2 gdp report we are not in a recession. on the inflation front i think they are reticent. white house officialed asked are we at the peak and going downhill? they're not ready to say the worst is behind us but saying look at gas prices. they are starting to come down. consistently for a number of weeks now. reading between the lines you get the sense that they are increasingly hopeful that inflation will go down. >> the gas prices are so, so profoundly important to the psychology of the electorate because that's where americans

see it the most. i think that's what explains the obsession with this white house. they know that's the big driver in the voter psychology and they believe that come labor day if you point to a map where prices are below $4 they can at least convey with something of a straight face that inflation isn't that bad. we are bringing it down here. if you don't have the gas piece that's hard to do. >> mixed picture. there have been good news for the democrats. on capitol hill which we'll talk about later but there was success to pass a bill to bolster semiconductor production in the united states. it has to be passed yet. we'll see if that happens. it could become a law. these are things happening now late in the congress.

is that enough to resonate with voters in the midterms and inflation is a big issue? >> clearly no. 82% of voters think the economy is in worst shape. we don't start at a normal coming out of a normal economy. still drive down main street there's lots of empty stores. the economy never really came back since the pandemic. that's the starting point. it is not where a normal time. so i think it's a hard -- folks -- downtowns are still empty. it is not a normal era. this is pandemic hangover. when the economy was going to take off and grow 6% or 8% nobody believed that either. now say see the 401(k)s. never look at it. they see it. they see the housing prices now.

it is a really complex time and no wonder that americans are scared. >> a point about the recent good news in congress for president biden. that actually can help him in midterms. biden's approval numbers from losing support of democrats. if he can show progress on an issue like climate it can get his approval back above 40. that little improvement can help in the midterms because he's got to be back to 40 for dems to have a shot at holding the senate. >> and then of course as we know the president's numbers have a huge impact in housing prices but there's a vibe shift in the white house with the positive legislative accomplishments. some headlines in recent days

about biden's presidency. back from the dead. we'll see. >> the pulse. >> governing from the middle is possible. wait, is biden a better president than people thought is the politico headline. does the white house feel like things shifted for them? >> cautiously optimisting. the man shin/schumer deal hasn't passed yet. this shows that, yes, this is a good period in legislative actions for the biden white house and a reminder of the early part of the president is the white house was the victim of its own sky-high predictions. we presumed the discussions with manchin about a big reconciliation package fell apart and then a massive deal.

they set the expectations high on a number of other issues. with this white house when the president stayed out of it and let the congress negotiate where he found success and a lesson to take going forward. >> the white house meantime dealing with this other piece of news. president biden is back in isolation at the white house after testing positive for covid on saturday and no symptoms and tweeted out videos to show he is working. the president's doctor said this is likely a rebound case sometimes happens after people finish paxlovid. another thing that the white house is watching up next for us the deal 18 months in the making. all eyes on the 50th vote. will sinema back h her party's healthth and climate deal?

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if maga republicans get their way, abortion will be banned nationwide, with no exceptions. medicare and social security will end in five years, with no replacement. elections will be decided by politicians, with no regard for your vote. if maga republicans get back in power, your rights, benefits and freedoms will be in danger. democrats will protect your rights. and the only way to stop maga republicans is to vote for democrats. ff pac is responsible for the content of this ad. so we need something super distinctive... dad's work, meet daughter's playtime. thankfully, meta portal auto pans and zooms to keep you in frame. and the meeting on track. meta portal. the smart video calling device that makes work from home work for you. there's a monster problem and our hero needs solutions.

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a week ago joe manchin was the most unhop lar person in the democratic party. what a damps few days can make. >> one senator going up against his own president and party and putting his interests before the interests of the country and i think it's a travesty. >> welcome in joe manchin, delighted to work with you to get this done. let's get something done for the american people. >> just weeks after talks hit a snag manchin revived the party's plan why now it's dubbed the inflation reduction act. >> so this is going to bring the energy prices down, bring the gasoline prices down to give a path forward to technology. you have to plant the seeds now

and we are doing this. >> that is huge deal. includes provisions democrats have been battling for sometime and still not law and we don't know where kirsten sinema is. there's reports and analysis about the plan. one said it won't reduce or increase inflation. there's a "the wall street journal" about higher bills for manufacturers. she is worried about taxes impact on businesses but should it make democrats nervous? >> absolutely. sinema would vote against this if she thought she had to. she doesn't have the cover of manchin on the filibuster and other issues. manchin is a co-author so that's an issue. i think there's going to be

enormous pressure on her from the president, schumer. i think democrats would negotiate with her, also. if she needs something changed they'll give her something but you know sinema. she'll take her time and kept saying -- she ran away from us the other day saying we'll see what happens when the bill gets on the floor and the parliamentarian is done. she will go and look at this stuff and to her credit understand the legislation and come to a position but i think she will be there in the end. >> she has been behind some of the biggest bipartisan achievements of this administration. gotten heat from the left refusing to change filibuster rules and led to the voting rights legislation stalling and there's a potential of her facing a primary challenge in

2024 including from congressman. >> she can't pass this because of wealthy people mostly in new york and california will will be consequences at the ballot box for her. i don't think it's prudent to stop the ground breaking legislation for wealthy people. >> how much do you think the pressure from the left on the possible primary is weighing? >> she is conscious of her colleague in the chamber and knows the primary is coming. i don't think that drives the decision entirely on the issue but knows that torpedoing this bill could make the steep climb in the primary steeper. >> on the taxation provisions, what we look at with sinema, in the fall she was favorable of

the 15% corporate tax rate. that 15% level is something she is okay with and why i think they picked that level hoping that that convinces her. we don't know about that level in this this economic situation. as we know that's not a big figure in the grand scheme of the bill and could get rid of that if sinema demands it. we should look at the past provisions. >> i would say that the branding of this new package is just so telling. we have gone from build back better which has been dead for a number of months but the name of the new bill is completely different. inflation reduction act of 2022. >> not very subtle. >> why not? >> goes to both manchin's reservations and he had been

public about. he didn't want anything that would either send the message or in reality putt pressure on inflation. that was something that he cared about a lot. when the president came out and taking the victory lap and he brought up the name build back better, no, don't go there. >> get the hook. >> one more thing. this is 100 days out. if she were to block this bill what does it do to warnock in georgia? >> they need something to run on. >> mark kelly in arizona. there's a good incentive. i think that the stakes are enormous. >> we discuss joe manchin? this is important. there's a perception of joe manchin on perhaps twitter that he is not a die no.

not a real democrat. he almost is there in the end. >> absolutely. >> fickle. he is reactive to the latest information. >> hard to pin down. >> he gets it at the end of the day. not the personal interests. that's who he is. >> there would not be a. >> translator: 2 trillion economic package at the beginning of the congress if not for joe manchin. >> we have a conversation in which he is talking to james carville in 2021 and he says people don't understand. i'm a real damn democrat. this weight is on him. he won't change. >> that's this talk about changing parties is just talk. >> he would be a republican venture. in the democratic party he is the 50th vote. >> five sunday shows. he is the only one to be

watching right here of course. >> of course. i'm sorry. >> but there's been -- he has had this good relations with republicans because of the way standing up to filibuster rules but the republicans have been going after him over the last few days. seen backlash over the democrats cutting this deal in other ways. one is senator jon cornyn and was just absolutely critical on the senate floor about this deal. >> how is this chamber supposed to function if we don't have at least some modicum of trust in what our colleagues tell us? how can we negotiate in good faith and get things done after the majority lead esch and the senator of west virginia pull a stunt like this?

>> pull a stunt. they cut this deal. mitch mcconnell played hard ball, too. >> he doesn't react well to pressure from republicans and when mcconnell threatened to block the china competitiveness bill that did not go over well with joe manchin. that is not an insignificant factor in this. >> facing pressure from the left getting behind build back better. held hostage in the house. that didn't work and this didn't work and interesting to see the dynamic play out. fascinating discussion. critical week ahead. next, the justice department ramps up the january 6 probe and prepares for a legal battle with

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and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. there are fresh sign that is prosecutors are looking at donald trump himself as part of their criminal probe into efforts the overturn the 2020 election. among other developments two men that served adds top advisers to former vice president mike pence appearing before a federal grand jury and documents that they are trying to make close trump aides testify and then responding to critics that the probe is passive. >> we pursue justice without fear or favor. we intend to hold everyone,

anyone who was criminally responsible for the then surrounding january 6 for any attempt to interfere with the lawful transfer of power from one administration to another accountable. >> katelyn, can you put the developments -- there have been a lot in the past week and what does it mean for the investigation? is trump a possible target? >> that is possible. this is the first quarter of a major, major criminal investigation. we should understand that now. it took a while. there's rioters up on the ground of the capitol prosecuted and then these things that the justice department is doing that put them right in the circle of donald trump and looking at donald trump himself. this court fight this week that we are understanding will be happening it could be happening

under seal is not just about donald trump and people around him and the justice department. it is about the justice department versus trump himself. his statements. what he was saying and trying to get people in the investigation to share what they knew about trump and the other parts, look at the list. subpoenas about trump campaign officials in this electors' probe. searches of private attorneys working for donald trump. there's been grand jury inquiries about rally organization and then there are people from the office of the vice president talking to the grand jury about what they knew. the only thing to understand they haven't been able to share is what they heard trump himself saying. it is an investigation that is getting to trump himself and his

actions. doesn't mean he is a target but there's a fact finding process going on and some point merrick garland there have to make a decision if he hasn't already about the policy of what to do here with this? is there enough to bring a charge? do they want to potentially charge a former president for actions he took while in office? >> so much pressure on garland about this investigation. a lot we don't know about where this investigation is. listen to these senators. >> the mounting evidence indicates that an investigation is well warranted. >> i hope in every instance judge garland will just be fair and even handed and believe in the rule of law and equal protection of law. >> do you sense that garland is feeling the pressure? >> there's been that pressure on

garland for a while and i think there was a growing narrative particularly among democrats that the doj okaying too slowly. perhaps that he was being too dlibive. we have democrats that prefer him as a hard charging prosecutor rather than a legal mind. i think everything that katelyn laid out is that there's growing momentum or in the works for a while and a reminder coming the doj and how it operates. because we don't know all of the ins and outs of the investigation might be focusing on or entailed in the investigation doesn't mean it's not happening. for the democrats to be frustrated there's a political element there. doesn't necessarily mean that they have a full picture of what is going on.

>> garland came out publicly last week with an interview with nbc news. why do you think he decided do go public? what are the sources telling you? >> this is what he's been saying since the one-year anniversary. one thing that's interesting about this compared to the last time donald trump was under investigation is that was a spectacle. congress took a backseat to that. garland is saying things now filling out the tiny bits what they look at. following the things. it is the house attracting the attention. they're the ones doing the investigation, getting people on the record fighting battles, getting pat cipollone in to talk to them first allowing garland to take a backseat and may be

hearing manier from him but he is a reticent guy. a lower "c" conversation guy. a former judge. he won't try to get ahead of things here. >> don't want to give the trump folks fodder. i think that he is ever conscience of the fact that every "i" and "t" has to be done with precision or the trump people jump all over him. that is a big explanation why he is so conversation as you said. >> speaking of trump, came back to washington for the first time since leaving office. the investigations running over him. >> the country is up 51%.

every day stabbings, rape, murders, assaults of every kind imaginable. our country is a cesspool of crime. our country is going to hell and very fast. it is a very unsafe place. >> incredibly dark speech. is the platform for him to run again? >> you can kind of take his campaign message in 2016 and turbo charge it. >> it is a much darker place. running a campaign of revenge saying that -- tell the lie that the 2020 election was stolen and this is the efforts to get it back. i think that there are republicans who are also eyeing 2024. they want to look for a more forward -- they want to pursue a

forward looking message but i think trump is too dominant. we expect him to announce a bid and we'll see how darker and more graphic the campaign message gets. >> mccarthy indicates he doesn't want him to announce with the investigations looming. is voting to impeach donald trump a political death sentence for three? >> my goal as a member of congress is to serve the di district. we are not about the performative stuff.

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him. three on the ballot this week. michigan's peter meijer and all face trump-backed primary challengers. >> made the most career ending move in history. >> we get rid of rinos. >> i challenge a republican to show me where butler stood strong on anything that closely resembles a conservative value. >> here's what congress kinzinger said about the party battles. if they thin there's still a battle. there's still a fight. if they all lose i think it means we're doomed in the near term. look at where they stand. just most of them retiring, logs the primarys. one of california advanced to a

general election. how do you see this playing out? >> you have to separate butler and newhouse from that group. why? they have gone to ground going to president trump. they don't air the grievances. mo mostly stayed mute on the advance of kevin mccarthy. told them basically you can survive the primary. don't talk about trump. the others decided not to take the course. peter meijer is outspoken over the last year and a half. it's the same lesson with brian kemp in georgia. you can survive if you turn the oh cheek and not be mean to mr. trump. if you confront him then probably going to lose. >> in meijer toll me in grand

rapids last week saying the issue comes up. he has to explain his vote. he is not backing away from it in any way and facing a candidate in john begin who is told me that he agrees with the trump false claim that the election was stolen. >> i think one analogy is the mafia. all you can get them for is tax evading. there's no framework in place to cut him. that doesn't mean they weren't doing stuff so there's similarities with the election stuff we are seeing. >> i asked him what -- there's no evidence the election is stolen. he said look at the mafia saying that they -- no evidence they were killing people but they were. this is the person that they propped up hoping that he would

win the primary and easier in the general election. >> he is extreme. he is pretty hard line. i do think that the michigan republican party is a fascinating -- the devos fight and now devos who resigned after january 6, betsy devos, she is putting money into the races and written a letter asking trump to endorse the candidate for governor. the party is at war with itself. what's happening in michigan is happening across the nation and the democrats trying to exploit this. infuriates democrat whs who arey are we putting the money into the hard line. tens of millions of dollars. >> this is a race that democrats can pick up. redistricting.

facing the biden plus nine district. rare pickup for the house and problems on the republican side and the ballot come tuesday in missouri. greitens who had to resign and very controversial candidate could win. what's this say about the republican efforts to take back the senate? >> if missouri becomes a problem for republicans then that is as major issue for the gop because obviously you only have to flip one seat in the senate for mitch mcconnell to be the leader again. that's a state they feel that they can flip but if missouri is in play at this point and that depends on who emerges as a victor of the republican primary that is not good news. >> trump stayed out and gotten

behind masters in arizona to unseat mark kelly. another big race for both sides. potentially to take back the majority. blake masters, both would not support mitch mcconnell. he is an issue in the primaries as the candidates align themselves with trump. >> there are a number of candidates i think gop leadership would find to be extreme headaches were they to make it to congress. a point worth making on the discussion about democrats getting in to support some of these extreme republican candidates there's a really interesting discussion whether it is ethical to do so. is that the right thing to do politically but also worth pointing out that some of these right wing extreme candidates they have a lot of momentum. it's not as though they're only

propped up with democratic money and funding going in. there's an appetite for the candidates and the forces within the gop in place already. >> yeah. this is not a strategy that's not uncommon. we have seen this before. sometimes it worked. we'll see if it comes back to bite them. donald trump hosted a saudi arabia backed tournament. 9/11 families say he's taking money from killers. ♪ my name is austin james. as a musician living with diabetes, fingersticks can be a real challenge.

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tournament just 50 miles from ground zero in manhattan. families of 9/11 victims who blame saudi for the attacks, say they are outraged and warn it could cost them. >> we have a lot of nypd

members, fdny, members you expect to vote along conservative lines. they say the former president is dead to them. he is aligning himself with an evil regime. putting money over america. >> trump says this isn't all about america first. this is not america first. 15 of the 19 hijackers were from saudi arabia. >> it's trump, incorporated, first, and the bottom line of trump, incorporated, to put a bottom line on it. the former president is trying to do two things. make money for his organization and stay relevant on the public scene. this is a way for him to do both. no, he's not thinking very deeply, i don't think, about the ethics of it. >> the things he has said have been rather striking as well. listen to what he said in response to the criticism that he received. >> i have known these people for a long time in saudi arabia. and they've been friends of mine for a long time. nobody's gotten to the bottom of

9/11, unfortunately, and they should have, as to the maniacs that did that horrible thing to our city, our country, to the world. >> nobody's gotten to the bottom of 9/11? extensive investigations about this. >> yeah. he said differently as president. so, i mean, he knows who is behind the 9/11 attack. he's doing this because he can't, you know, he can't justify why he's doing this now. he's doing it for money. he can't come out and say that. he's just doing it for the money. he's doing it because it pisses people off. you know, and he's in business with the saudis. there's a lot of opportunity for him to get his golf courses with professional golfers. this is like -- this is his dream. this is everything all coming together. >> and the pga shunned him as a way -- against the pga tournament. trump has had this long history with saudi arabia, with the saudi crown prince. he, of course, downplayed, don't dismiss the role of the crown

prince in the murder of jamal khashoggi, the american-based journalist. jared kushner's firm, six months after leaving the white house, a fund tied to jared kushner, tied to mbs, invested $2 billion into jared kushner. this is a long relationship between the two. >> it's an interesting contrast with the current president who got a lot of criticism for his trip to saudi arabia. but if you look back at the trump administration, jared kushner and president trump took mbs at his word when the crown prince told them he had no role in jamal khashoggi's murder. that's not what u.s. intelligence says. they have been so willing to take the side of saudi arabia in so many aspects, particularly this. and you kind of have to wonder why. >> yeah, and saudi arabia presents a complicated -- it's complicated for the current administration as well. they're not profiting off it the way that the trump family is, clearly, here, but biden's had

his issues, too. >> and i think these families sort of feel like there are all these political figures and elected officials who will easily target and go after and criticize the saudi government until the very moment that it's not in their interest to do so, right? whether it's because they are going to fund a golf tournament, whether it is because they can produce a lot of oil. that's exactly the situation that we saw with the biden administration, right? this was a president that until recently had said this was supposed to be somebody we're going to make a pariah. we're not going to be engaging with them in a political way, in a serious way, until gas prices skyrocketed here in the u.s. and it became really important for him to make that kind of outreach. >> yeah. another trump controversy. of course, he shrugs it off. we'll see what happens next. that's it for us on "inside politics sunday." next up jake tapper on "state of

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next, jake tapper's live interview with joe manchin

senator joe manchin shocks washington, d.c., by striking a tax and climate deal with fellow democrats. >> hard work pays off, history is made. >> will the bill help with inflation? and are democrats actually on track to pass it? the man behind the deal, democratic senator joe manchin, will be here live and republican senator pat toomey will join me to respond. plus, vote for vets? senior senate republicans spark outrage by stalling a bill to helpes